I.Am.Not.Making.This.Up💥: What do we make of the outcome of the shocking Botswana election?

The Crucial Question:
What do we make of the outcome of the shocking Botswana election?

It has to be one of the most honest things any politician has said anywhere. An official from the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) was asked why the party, which has ruled the country for 58 years since independence, had lost all but four seats. He said, “I have no idea.”

The ousting of the BDP is truly a seismic event, not only in Botswana’s history but also for the continent. But you can understand why the party of outgoing President Mokgweetsi Masisi is so flummoxed.

Botswana has been an extraordinary economic success story since independence, and partly for that reason, the party was presumably under the impression that it was gliding toward yet another overwhelming victory. Yet the dam has been threatening to break; the BDP has won narrow majorities of the popular vote and was heavily reliant on a divided opposition. Divisions within the BDP had also emerged, notably when former president Ian Khama broke away from the party after his second term as president.

Khama, son of Botswana’s respected inaugural president Seretse Khama, has spent the past three years in exile in South Africa after Masisi laid charges against him for illegal possession of firearms and ammunition, money laundering, and receiving stolen property. In 2022, authorities issued arrest warrants for him for failing to appear in court to face the firearms charges.

However, it wasn’t Khama who won big, but lawyer Duma Boko, who has been chipping away at the BDP majority for almost two decades.

It speaks to the strength of Botswana’s institutions that Masisi accepted the defeat and stood aside immediately. But the blame for the extraordinary loss does lie at Masisi’s feet: his gamble to play hardball with De Beers, which has been trying to finalize its diamond marketing deal for over a year, clearly didn’t go his way.

It's telling that Boko, despite being considered center-left as opposed to the BDP’s center-right orientation, has promised to complete the deal quickly.

The partnership between De Beers and the Botswana government has been hailed as a model of a progressive government-business agreement. The agreement is structured as a partnership between De Beers and the Botswana state, but it has always left the management of the mines in De Beers' hands. It’s a unique deal, with Anglo American and Botswana each owning half of Debswana, the operating company in Botswana.

The relationship has been win-win for both sides: Anglo American, the owner of De Beers, secures a fabulous flow of high-quality diamonds, allowing the company to almost dominate the diamond industry. The Botswana government, in turn, has benefited from dividend flows, some industrial development, and a crucial export that stabilizes its finances.

But like politics, the wheels are coming off, mainly because of significant changes in the diamond industry. Industrial diamonds, also known as synthetic diamonds, account for around half of total diamond sales, and stone-for-stone, they cost about a fifth of the price.

In its latest results, Anglo reported that De Beers lost money, and earlier this year, Anglo wrote down De Beers’ book value by $1.56 billion. Since then, there has been speculation that the company is considering offloading De Beers, and in fact, the Botswana government was considering increasing its stake.

The reported reason for the BDP’s surprising loss is that the economy has lost much of its vigor. GDP growth has become spotty; gone are the 2000s when the economy could be relied on to grow an average of 5% per year.

But it seems entirely possible that the BDP just overstayed its welcome. The party that needs to watch its laurels now is Swapo, the ruling party of the country next door. Namibia goes to the polls next month, although it must be said that the political dynamics are very different.

But with the significant change in Botswana and the ANC’s drop below a plurality of the vote, who knows—even Zanu-PF might be in for a review. Just joking, of course.

The Week That Was:

Political and Diplomatic Affairs

• Earthshot Prize Awards: Prince William is set to visit Cape Town for the Earthshot Prize Awards on 6 November 2024. This marks his first official trip to South Africa since 2010. The event will highlight innovative environmental solutions, with a focus on African-led initiatives.People
• Taiwan Embassy Relocation: The South African government has asked Taiwan to move its unofficial embassy from Pretoria to Johannesburg within six months, aiming to strengthen ties with China. This decision reflects South Africa's adherence to the One-China policy.Associated Press

Economic Developments

• Budget Deficit and Debt Projections: The National Treasury announced wider budget deficits and higher debt projections for the next three years, despite expectations of improved economic growth due to better electricity supply. The consolidated deficit is projected at 5.0% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 2025.Reuters
• Growth Target Reduction: The government has reduced its annual GDP growth target from 1.3% to 1.1%, citing significant economic challenges. Despite efforts to attract investment, the economic outlook remains cautious.Financial Times

Social and Environmental Issues

• Chris Brown concert: Campaign gains momentum to block ‘undesirable’ R&B star Chris Brown’s Johannesburg gigs. Daily Maverick
• Tribute to Conservationist: Graham "Dingo" Dinkelman, known as "South Africa's Steve Irwin", passed away following a venomous snake bite. His daughter shared an emotional tribute, highlighting his passion for wildlife and conservation.People

International Relations

• Unity Government Tensions: The coalition government is experiencing internal conflicts over its stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Disagreements between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) have surfaced, reflecting differing foreign policy perspectives. Associated Press

Travel and Tourism

• New Flight Routes: Norse Atlantic Airways has launched its first UK-Africa route, connecting London Gatwick to Cape Town. This service aims to boost tourism and offers competitive fares for travelers. The Sun

Recommended

Africa is struggling to make up its mind about what it wants the United Nations to be, writes Ebenezer Obadare. The continent’s leaders have wavered between disillusionment with the institution and demand for equal treatment, locking its ambition and influence in a stalemate. Asking for a permanent veto on the UN security council “that was up until recently denounced as undemocratic and obnoxious smacks of opportunism and moral inconsistency,” he argues.

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